LCG 03 Geo-Political Risk Workbook (English Edition)

What have you decided to do if your most important market closes tomorrow?

Geopolitics has moved from the foreign pages of the newspaper to the board agenda. In WTW's 2026 D&O survey, 59% of directors rate geopolitical risk as very or extremely important - in the top seven for the first time. But calling something important is not the same as having decided what to do. Can you answer these five?

1. How much revenue can we afford to lose from a single market?

Intel had around 27% of its revenue from China when export controls tightened. The workbook suggests a simple rule: no market above 30% of revenue without a deliberate board decision.

2. What does it cost to leave a country - and how long does it take?

IKEA took more than 18 months to leave Russia and wrote down around €1.2bn. An exit is not a decision you make on a Monday morning. The workbook helps you think it through while you still have the choice.

3. Which of our suppliers sit in a bottleneck we can't see?

When ships were rerouted around the Red Sea, Maersk's customers faced 10-14 extra days in transit and sharply higher freight rates. China accounts for around 90% of rare earth refining (IEA). The workbook's four-dimension exposure map shows where you are vulnerable - including two links down the chain.

4. Have we agreed our position in advance - or will we have to find it mid-crisis?

A Danish hi-fi company had its Christmas shipment on the Trans-Siberian railway and three options, all of them bad. The workbook gives you three scenarios and three board positions - reactive, adaptive and robust - so you know where you stand before it happens.

5. Can sanctions hit us even if we're not party to the conflict?

Yes. In the Global Board Survey, trade sanctions are the fastest-rising challenge for boards - from about 25% to 38%. The IMF estimates that fragmentation of world trade could cost up to 7% of global GDP. The workbook sets out the six channels through which geopolitics hits a business.

What you get: Six damage channels, a four-dimension exposure map, three scenarios, three board positions and seven concrete measures. Cases from Intel, IKEA, TSMC, German gas dependence, Maersk in the Red Sea and Hormuz 2026.

It is for boards and executive teams in companies with exports, production or suppliers outside Europe.

Why not just ask ChatGPT? ChatGPT can tell you what is happening in the world. The workbook helps you decide what it means for you - and what you will do when it happens.

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